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Week ahead June 26th – July 1st

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

 

Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on the lack of any strong economic releases in the US. The tide range all over the week was a consolidating mode for both, the Euro and the US Dollar. Signals from both central banks let traders to guess whether both continents are really getting into recession. With the worse than expected economic releases coming out in the last weeks the overall  global growth and recession clouds are worsening and keeping the pair muted.

As for this week market participants will mainly focus on the Speeches from ECB’s president Christine Lagarde, FED’s officials and the heavy economic calendar.

On the economic calendar, we have on Monday, US Durable goods orders pointing lower at 0.1% On Wednesday, European consumer confidence to remain unchanged at -23.6 German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected higher at 8.8%, US Gross domestic product unchanged at -1.5%. On Thursday, German retail sales expected higher at 0.8%, US core personal consumption expenditures higher at 0.4%. On Friday, European HICP expected higher at 8.3% and US manufacturing PMI lower at 55

Technically the picture is negative after last week’s closed below 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if pair breaks below 1.0480 will accelerate losses down to 1.0350. If pair manage to maintain recovery and close above (23.6%) could change the picture to neutral and test next level of 1.0800 (38.2%). Our traders are net 100% long with positions opened between 1.1350 to 1.0350 targeting profits above 1.1350 we are expecting more aggressive long positions on the way down. Alternative if pair continues trading on the upside, we are expecting short sellers to appear around 1.1090 (61.8%)

 

 

 

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

 

Pair closed last week’s trading session marginally higher after a week of tide range and consolidation mode. The pair traded muted last week on the lack of any high impact economic releases and on both central bank’s warning signals that the global growth is stalemate and recession clouds on the horizon.

As for this week market participant will focus on the speeches from both central bank’s officials, and the economic releases.

On the economic calendar we have on Monday, US Durable goods orders pointing lower at 0.1%. On Wednesday, US Gross domestic product unchanged at -1.5%. On Thursday, UK Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 0.8% and US core personal consumption expenditures higher at 0.4%. On Friday, UK Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 53.4 and US manufacturing PMI lower at 55.

Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close below 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if pair manages to recover on the upside and breaks above 23.6% we are expecting to test 1.2600 (38.2%) Alternatively if pair continues on the downside could accelerate losses down to 1.1900 Our traders are net long 100% with positions opened between 1.3412 to 1.1950 targeting profits above 1.3400 We are expecting new buyers on the way down and short sellers to appear around 1.3170

 

 

 

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

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