EURUSD Closed last week’s trading session lower on increasing demand for safe heaven US Dollar. Fundamental reasons behind the US Dollar’s strength was the FOMC minutes. Fed failed to deliver a dovish stance as it was expected by letting investors wondering whether Fed will adopt a more dovish policy in the future. Another reason is the fast spreading of covid-19 around the globe, keeping governments in the dark and divided whether and if they will apply harder restrictions or even go into a second lock-down.
As for the coming week most probable covid-19 second wave will be once again the main actor for any price move. With Europe hitting into trouble due to second wave of Covid-19, economic release news will once again be overshadowed. Thursday’s speech from FED’s chair Powell will be guide investors for any future changes in FED’s policy.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Tuesday, German Gross domestic product with expectations to remain unchanged at -10.1% and US consumer confidence expected higher at 93.2 On Wednesday, US durable goods orders expected lower at 3.3% On Thursday, US gross domestic product expected at -32.5% On Friday, German Gfk consumer confidence expected higher at 2, European business climate expected at -0.3 German Harmonized index of consumer prices at 0% and US Michigan consumer sentiment unchanged at 72.8
Technically, the picture is positive. Pair still trading just below 161.8%. In this week’s trading session if the pair continues on the downside we are expecting as next level 1.1700 (last 2 week’s lower level). Traders are expecting the downside correction will continue and could bring the pair back to 100% 1.1400. Our traders keeping open their short positions opened between 1.1000- 1.1900 We are expecting buyers to take control at 1.1545 and sellers to take profits on their short positions opened above 1.1800 if downside continues
GBPUSD closed the week unchanged even though UK economic released bit expectations. Pair seesaw during all week’s trading session as mixed signals were conflicted, from better than expected economic release to a new failed Brexit round of negotiations. Both the UK’s and Eu’s chief negotiators express disappointment over failed round of negotiations.
As for this week we do not expect any Brexit news. All eyes will be on the speech of BOE governor on Friday afternoon and in covid-19 second wave that could bring higher demand for safe heaven US Dollar and additional downside pressure in the pair.
On this week’s economic calendar, there is not any releases so pair will be in the hands of it US counterpart economic releases.
Technically the pair is still positive. If pair breaks and close above 1.3232 (last week’s high) we could see more gains with first level to be tested at 1.3374 just below (100%) in the coming sessions. Alternative a close below 1.3050 will resume downside to retest 1.2714 61.8%. Our traders keeping open their short positions opened at 1.2700 1.3016 and 1.3150 targeting profits at 50% 1.2470 we are expecting more aggressive sellers this week if pair continue upside, alternative, if pair retreat lower we are expecting new buyers to appear as from 1.2700 and more aggressive buyers at 1.2470 (61.8%) with our sellers to take profit of their short positions
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