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Week ahead March 28th – April 1st

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower amid dovish comments by ECB’s Christine Lagarde. The ECB president expressed worries on downbeat economic growth due to the war between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting once again that the bank will continue supporting economy with low interest rates, closing the door for any rate hike in 2022. It is obvious that the war just outside Europe’s boarders has negative impact on the economy and keeping investors on hold.

As for this week market participants will continue focusing on the war in Ukraine hoping that a ceasefire agreement will be achieved between the two parties. Traders will be following Friday’s US non-farm payroll and few speeches from FED’s officials and ECB’s Christine Lagarde.

On the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing higher at 6.4%. US ADP employment to add 450K new jobs and US Gross domestic product higher at 7.1%. On Thursday, German retail sales expected low-er at 2.4%. On Friday, European HICP expected higher at 6.5%, US non-farm payroll to add 488K new jobs and ISM manufacturing PMI expected lower at 58.4

Technically, the picture is negative after last week’s closed below (38.2%). In this week’s trading session If pair retreat on the upside we are expecting as first level to be tested the 1.1080 (38.2%). If breaks and closes above 1.1080 (50%), the sentiment will change to neutral and will retest 1.1154 (50%) Alternative if pair continues trading on the downside, a close below (23.6%) will keep the picture negative and accelerate losses down to 1.0800. Our traders are net long by 80% starting from 1.1350, till 1.1000 targeting profits at 1.1500. Short positions are 20% open at 1.1130 targeting profits at 1.0900 If pair trades on the upside we are expecting more short sellers above 1.1150 alternative if pair trades on the downside we are expecting more aggressive buyers below 1.1000

 

 

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

 

Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged after mixed sentiment surrounding markets. The current situation in Russian-Ukraine war is keeping investors and traders on hold, as worries of downside economic growth is visible and confirmed by last week’s downbeat economic releases.

As for this week traders will focus on the Russian- Ukraine war hoping for a ceasefire. The speech from BOE’s governor on Monday will guide investors on what next, in central bank’s interest rate path, based on the current situation in Europe.

In the economic calendar we have on Wednesday, US ADP employment to add 450K new jobs and US Gross domestic product pointing higher at 7.1%. On Thursday, UK Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 1%. On Friday, UK Markit manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 57, US non-farm payroll to add 488K new jobs and US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 58.4

Technically the pair is negative after last week’s close just above (23.6%). In this week’s trading session if pair resumes upside, we are expecting to test 1.3262 with an upbeat extension at 1.3315 (50%). Alternatively, if continues on the downside and close below (23.6%), will open the road down to 1.3000 (0%) Our traders are net long 100% with positions at 1.3412, 1.3319, 1.3172 and 1.3034 targeting profits at 1.3600 We are expecting more aggressive buyers below 1.3000. Alternative if pair resumes upside, we are expecting short sellers to appear above 1.3320 targeting profits at 1.3100

 

 

 

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

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