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Week ahead February 14th – 18th

EUR/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

 

Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on US Dollar strength. The US Dollar has seen some demand as safe haven asset last week due to geopolitical turmoil between Russia and Ukraine. Warnings from UK and US, advising their citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 48 hours has spread panic in global markets and push investors in buying the US Dollar. The high inflation number in the US together with FED’s officials’ comments, that the FED will probably hike rates by as much as 1% in March, was more than enough to push the pair lower.

As for this week market participants will focus on the economic calendar with the highest impact event the FOMC minutes. Traders and Investors should closely monitor the Russian-Ukraine geopolitical tensions. If the worse will happen this week we may see sharp downside move on the pair driven by global equity sell-off. According to US defense secretary, Russia will most probable invade Ukraine by Wednesday this week.

On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, European Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 4.6% German ZEW survey Economic sentiment higher at 53.5 On Wednesday, US Retail sales expected higher at 1.6% and FOMC minutes will be released.

Technically, the picture is neutral after last week’s closed on (61.8%). If pair continues to trade on the upside and breaks and closes above 1.1500 (100%), will change the picture to positive and accelerate gains up to 1.1700 Alternative if pair trades on the downside, a close below (61.8%) will change the picture back to negative and open the road to 1.1250. Our traders are short at 1.1347 and 1.1481 targeting profits below 1.1300 Buyers started to appear at 1.1350 targeting profits at 1.1500. we are expecting more aggressive buyers below 1.1300

GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL

 

Pair closed last week’s trading session marginally higher on upbeat economic release from the UK. With the UK growth hitting 7.5% the highest level since WWII, the UK is officially entering into a period of monetary normalization. Even though the economic releases were better than expected the pair could not keep the upside move due to US Dollar strength on demand of safe haven asset on Russian -Ukraine geopolitical turmoil.

As for this week traders will focus on the inflation numbers from the UK and the FOMC. A higher than the expected 5.4% could boost the pair higher as it will continue to price in more rate hikes in 2022. Traders and investors should be alert on a potential invasion in Ukraine that could push the pair sharp lower on US Dollar’s strength.

In the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, ILO unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.1% On Wednesday, UK Consumer price index to remain unchanged at 5.4% US Retail sales expected higher at 1.6% and FOMC minutes will be released. On Friday, Retail sales expected higher at 0.6%

Technically the pair is neutral after last week’s closed just below 61.8%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside and close above 61.8%, the pair will changed in positive and we are expecting to test 1.3700, alternatively, if resumes the downside and close below (50%), will change the picture to negative and open the road down to 1.3300 Our traders are short at 1.3580 targeting profits at 1.3430 We are expecting more aggressive short sellers above 1.3700 Alternative if pair turn down we are expecting new buyers below 1.3500

For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on: 

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