Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on mixed signals from the ECB. The central bank announced a slow pace of PEPP as it was widely expected. Although the wording moderately slower pace and the speech from ECB’s president Lagarde was taken as dovish from market participants and drove Euro lower. On the US Dollar side, comments from FED’s Michelle Bowman were hawkish as he highlighted that the central bank is close to announce the start of tapering.
As for this week, there is not any high impact schedule event, so, traders will be focusing on the economic releases and technical levels.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, US consumer price index to remain unchanged at 4.3% On Wednesday, European industrial production expected higher at 0.5% On Thursday, US retail sales expected at -0.7% On Friday, European consumer price index to remain unchanged at 1.6% and US Michigan consumer sentiment marginally lower at 70.2
Technically, the picture is neutral. Pair retreated lower and close just on 23.6% at 1.1810. If pair trades on the upside this week and closes above (38.2%) the picture will be change to positive and accelerate gains towards 1.1200 (50%) Alternative a downside move and close below 23.6% will accelerate losses towards 1.1700 Our traders kept open their long positions at 1.1970, 1.1865, 1.1762 and 1.1715 targeting profits above 1.1970 Trailing stops will be triggered above 1.1900. At 1.2000 we are expecting short sellers to take control.
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICAL
Pair closed last week’s trading session marginally lower. After an attempt to break lower due to hawkish comments from FED’s Michelle Bowman highlighted that the central bank is close to announce the start of tapering. Pair reverse sharp on the upside and erased all losses after BOE’s governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers on Wednesday that while growth was plateauing, he is among officials who think a minimum criteria for tighter U.K. monetary policy has been met.
As for this week traders will be monitoring the UK economic calendar as main catalyst behind any move in the pair.
In the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, ILO unemployment rate pointing lower at 4.6% On Wednesday, consumer price index expected higher at 2.9% and retail price index lower at 0.3% On Friday, retail sales expected higher at 2.6%
Technically the pair is positive after last week’s close above 61.8% level at 1.3830 In this week’s trading session if pair continue to trades on the upside and close above 50%, will open the road to 1.4000 Alternatively if pair resumes downside, a close below 61.8% will be needed to change the picture to neutral and retest last week’s lower level at 1.3700 Our traders kept open their long positions at 1.4000, 1.3837 and 1.3671 targeting profits at 1.4200 with trailing stops to be triggered above 1.3900 Short sellers are standing at 1.3860 targeting profits at 1.3600 We are expecting more aggressive buyers on the way down and short sellers to appear on the way up targeting profits at 1.3600
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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