Pair closed last week’s trading session higher mainly on US Dollar muted stance. FED failed to deliver a hawkish expectation on their Wednesday meeting. Although comments that economic recovery could trigger a reduction in the bond-buying program, the new potential pandemic from the delta virus keeps the central bank on hold, highlighting that uncertainty and downside risk still needs to be monitored.
As for this week, traders will be focusing on the US jobs number. A better than expected number could trigger a downside move. Although now traders will be waiting for a stronger fundamental that will defy the next move in the pair. ECB’s next meeting will be awaited with impatience and see whether the central bank will continue its extreme dovish stance or not.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, German Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 65.6 and US ISM manufacturing PMI higher ta 60.8 On Wednesday, US ADP employment expected to add 645K new jobs and ISM service PMI to be higher at 60.5 On Friday nonfarm payrolls expected to add 895K new jobs and average hourly earnings to remain unchanged at 0.3%
Technically, the picture is negative. Pair closed higher just on the (23.6%) at 1.1872. In this week’s trading session if the pair continues on the upside, we are expecting to test, 1.1945 (38.2%) a break above that level will open the road to 1.2000 alternatively if resumes downside and close below 23.6% on the 4H chart could accelerate losses toward 1.1700 Our traders kept open their long positions at 1.1970 and 1.1865 targeting profits above 1.2240 we are expecting more aggressive long positions at 1.1700 alternatively a break on the upside could bring short-sellers around 1.2000 targeting profits at 1.1750
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on a dovish comment from FED’s last meeting. The central bank expressed concerns about the new delta variant and its negative impact on the economy although the central bank signalled that soon will start to reduce its bond-buying program the markets took the comment negatively as concerns weighed on the US Dollar.
As for this week, traders will be closely monitoring the bank of England meeting and the comment that will come out from the press conference. No change on policy is expected on this meeting although close attention and alert should be in place as the MPs might start supporting one by one a rate hike. On the US Dollar side, all eyes will be turned to the nonfarm payroll number.
In the economic calendar we have on Monday the Manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 60.4 and on Thursday the BOE rate decision and the press conference.
Technically the pair is neutral after last week’s sharp upside move and close on the 50% level at 1.3906 In this week’s trading session if the pair continue to trades on the upside, will retest last week’s higher level at 1.3990 a close above last week’s higher level of 1.3990 will change the picture to positive and open the road to 1.4100 (23.6%) Alternative if pair resumes the downside the first level to be retested is 1.3830 (61.8%). Our traders kept open their long positions at 1.4000, 1.3837 and 1.3671 targeting profits at 1.4200 We are expecting short sellers to appear at 1.4000 targeting profits at 1.3600
For more detailed economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
*The material does not contain an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. 10TradeFX accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representationor warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losing all your invested capital, so please make sure that you fully understand the risks involved.