Pair closed last week’s trading session lower on FED’s Powell’s comments about inflation and on solid Nonfarm payroll number. With the US economy on track of recovery and labor market improving, US Dollar may continue to strengthen in the coming sessions as investors and traders will now start to follow FED officials’ comments for any sooner than expected rate hike.
As for this week, all eyes will be turned on US inflation number. After last week’s comments, and after treasury yield’s rally, inflation number will be a catalyst behind any further US Dollar strength. In addition, pending stimulus package approval is also a market catalyst and this might be approved during the weekend with impact on US markets during this week’s trading session. From the Euro side, ECB monetary policy meeting will be the main fundamental in this week. No change in policy is expected at this meeting, although president’s Lagarde speech and comments about the Euro exchange rate will create some volatility.
On the economic calendar, we have on Monday, German Industrial production pointing higher at 0.2% On Tuesday, European gross domestic product expected at -5%. On Wednesday, US consumer price index expected higher at 1.7% On Thursday, ECB monetary policy meeting. On Friday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices to remain unchanged at 1.6% and Michigan consumer sentiment higher at 78
Technically, the picture is negative. Pair closed lower just above 61.8% at 1.1910 In this week’s trading session if the pair trades on the downside and break and close below (61.8%), the overall picture will remain negative with next level in sight 1.1615 (100%) If pair resumes upside and close above 50% will change the picture to neutral. Our traders keeping open their long positions at 1.2174, 1.2060 and 1.1972 targeting profits at 1.2343 we are expending more aggressive buyers at 1.1900 (61.8%) alternative if pair trades on the upside we are expecting short sellers to take control above 1.2170
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed lower last week’s trading session mainly on US Dollar’s strength due to Jerome Powell’s comments and on solid nonfarm payroll number. From the GBP side, there was not any fundamental catalyst behind last week’s downside move.
As for this week, traders will focus on BOE’s governor Bailey’s speech and US inflation number as it will be the only major fundamentals for any further move in the pair on either side.
In the economic calendar we have on Monday, BOE’s governor’s speech. On Tuesday, BRC like-for-like retails sales pointing at 7% On Friday, Manufacturing production expected lower at -0.2% and Gross domestic product lower at -4.9%
Technically the pair is neutral after last week’s downside move. In this week’s trading session if the pair continues on the downside, we are expecting to test 1.3720 (50%) Alternative if pair resumes upside, first level to be retested is 1.4000 (23.6%) The pair is back to its multi-month uptrend channel. Our traders started buying the pair at 1.3840 targeting profits at 1.4200 more aggressive long positions are expected at 1.3720 (50%) Alternative, if the pair resumes upside we may see short-sellers around 1.4100 targeting profits at 1.3800
For more detail economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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