Pair closed last week’s trading session lower mainly on deteriorating European economic outlook and on demand of safe-haven US Dollar, as investors are bracing die to the political turmoil in the US. The new US president, Biden said last week that he might push taxes higher instead of injecting another 1.9 trillion US Dollars. This drove equity markets lower and risk aversion drove the US Dollar higher.
As for this week, traders will mainly focus on the ECB meeting to gather clues of what the central bank’s next move will be. No change of policy is expected at this meeting. Vaccination is coming with delays and not as fast as it was initially expected, this has pushed more governments into stricter lockdown rules with negative impact on their economies. Remain to see this week how Vaccination will continue and how governments will face the continuing surge in new cases and deaths around the world.
On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing lower at -0.7% German ZEW survey economic sentiment expected higher at 60. On Wednesday, European consumer price index expected to remain unchanged at 02% On Thursday, ECB rate decision and monetary policy meeting expected to remain unchanged. On Friday, German Markit Manufacturing PMI expected lower at 58 European Markit PMI composite lower at 47.8 US Markit manufacturing PMI lower at 56.5 and US Markit manufacturing PMI unchanged at 0.4%
Technically, the picture is neutral. Pair traded lower after broken first support at 1.2174 and closed just above second support at 1.2075 In this week’s trading session if the pair continues the downside and break and close below (38.2%) 1.2060, the picture will be turned to negative with next level in sight 1.1967 (50%) if pair resumes upside will need to break and close above 1.2175 to change the picture back to positive. Our traders started to buy the pair at 1.2174 targeting profits at 1.2350. If pair continues the downside, we are expecting more buyers at 1.2060
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed unchanged last week’s trading session after UK’s economic releases show that the UK economy performs better that expected. The economic releases balanced the new covid-19 lockdowns and increasing number of new cases and deaths.
As for this week traders will be focus on the Vaccination program and how fast the government will act. Pending to be priced in the pair, is the announcement of PM Boris on closing the airports starting from Monday. This event might have a negative impact on GBP and drive the pair lower.
In the economic calendar we have on Tuesday, Core consumer price index pointing higher at 0.5% and retail price index also higher at 0.6%. On Friday, Gfk consumer confidence expected lower at -29, Retail sales higher at 4% and Markit services PMI lower at 45.3
Technically the pair is positive even after last week’s close to the same level. In this week’s trading session if pair retreats on the upside, we are expecting to retest 1.3713 A break above this level will target as next level 1.3750 Alternative if pair continues the downside, first level to be retested is 1.3150 (23.6%) Our traders keeping open their short positions at 1.3500 and 1.3600 targeting profits at 1.3150. We are expecting buyers to appear around 1.3150 targeting profits above 1.3700 and short sellers to continue selling on the way up or taking profits on the way down.
For more detail economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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