Pair closed last week’s trading session unchanged after another attempt to break out higher. Initial the pair broke higher from last week’s higher-level registering a new multi-year higher level, although before the end of the week pair retreaded lower and finally closed at the same level as last week. Last week was highlighted by the riots in Washington Capitol by Trump’s supporters and from slowing number in nonfarm payrolls. The disappointing number of 70K, worse than expected, brought back some fears in the markets, that virus spreading will hit employment once again as it did last year.
As for this week, with vaccination underway is still too early to figure out if the vaccine will work by its own or will need the help of governments, having to follow the UK and impose a second full lockdown to prevent the increasing number of new cases and deaths. Traders will keep following any new stricter lockdown measures that could have a negative impact on global growth and how the new US government will handle the last 10 days of Trump’s administration and take control of the situation that creates internal political turmoil. Both, the new lockdowns, and political uncertainty in the US will drive investors into safe-haven US Dollar with the result to become stronger and push pair lower.
On the economic calendar, we have on Wednesday, US consumer price index pointing higher at 1.3%. On Thursday, FED’s chair Powell will speak. On Friday US retails expected higher at 0.2% and US Michigan consumer sentiment index lower at 79.2
Technically, the picture is positive. Pair traded higher and closed unchanged at 1.2219 just above 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if the pair trades on the upside and breaks above 1,2350 gains will be accelerating with next level in focus the 1.2400 Alternative a downside move will test 1.2174 (23.6%) as first reversal point. Our traders are waiting for a pullback around 1.2174 before starting to buy the pair and targeting profits at 1.2350.
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed lower last week after UK Government announced a second full lockdown. With new covid-19 cases on the rise and record death, the UK economy has to face a new deteriorating economic growth. The pound has stabilized after a sharp move on the downside while UK’s Chief executive of NHS said that hospitals are not overcrowded and can accommodate more patients if need.
As for this week, traders will be focus on the vaccine’s immunization progress and how the UK government will accelerate vaccinations by 100 of thousands per day. The speech from BOE’s governor Mr. Bailey will also need to be followed as it will guide investors through the BOE’s next support program.
In the economic calendar, we have on Tuesday, BRC like-for-like retail sales pointing lower at 5.9%. On Friday Manufacturing production expected lower at 0.7% Industrial production lower at 0.4% and Gross domestic product lower at -4%
Technically the pair is positive even after last week’s drop below 0.0%. In this week’s trading session if pair retreats on the upside, we are expecting to retest 1.3713 A break above this level will target as next level 1.3750 Alternative if pair continues the downside, the first level to be retested is 1.3150 (23.6%) Our traders keeping open their short positions at 1.3500 and 1.3600 targeting profits at 1.3150. We are expecting buyers to appear around 1.3150 targeting profits above 1.3700 and short sellers to continue selling on the way up or taking profits on the way down.
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