Pair closed last week’s trading session higher after another attempt to break out higher. For a moment pair gave the impression that breaking out of last week’s 1.2270 could drive the pair higher, although some take profit from investors ahead of new year’s holidays drove the pair sharp lower. The thin trading, lack of liquidity and economic events kept the pair around year’s high levels for now.
Going into this week, traders are expecting the pair to continue the downside. Historically the US Dollar becomes stronger after long holiday seasons, without this to be a must. We are expecting the same behaviour for this week, a stronger US Dollar. Vaccinations started all around the globe and hopes for economic recovering are becoming stronger something that drives investors away from haven US Dollar. Although, the surge in new cases and deaths is contradicting the effect of vaccinations and keeps some uncertainty in the markets, while governments one after the other are entering into new lockdowns. FOMC and nonfarm payrolls are the strongest fundamentals to be follow this week.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, German Markit manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 58.6 and US Markit manufacturing PMI also unchanged at 56.5 On Tuesday, German retail sales expected lower at 3.9%, German unemployment higher at 6.2% and US ISM manufacturing PMI lower at 56.5 On Wednesday, German Markit PM composite to remain unchanged at 49.8 German Harmonized index of consumer prices lower at -0.6% US ADP employment lower at 159K and later the FOMC minutes will be released without any changes in focus for this meeting. On Thursday, European retail sales expected lower at 1.2% European consumer price index unchanged at 0.2% US ISM service PMI expected lower at 54.5 On Friday, German industrial production expected lower at 0.7% and US nonfarm payrolls lower at 100K
Technically, the picture is positive. Pair traded higher below 0.0% and above 23.6%. In this week’s trading session if the pair trades on the upside and breaks above 1,2300 gains will be accelerating with next level in focus the 1.2370 Alternative a downside trend will test 1.2141 (23.6%) as first reversal point. Our traders are waiting for a pullback around 1.2141 before starting to buy the pair and targeting profits at 1.2300.
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed firm higher last week’s trading session as markets continued to price in the EU-UK trade deal. In the lack of any major economic release from the US and UK, the pair took the chance to trade higher while continuing to pricing in the strongest fundamental of Brexit deal. This deal has finally added some positive sentiment in the UK market and businesses. Erasing the so long market uncertainty is obvious now that GBP is poised to continue into gains.
As for this week, traders will be focus on the economic calendar of US and UK with more weight on the FOMC and nonfarm payrolls as the major catalyst behind any price action.
In the economic calendar we have on Monday, Markit manufacturing PMI to remain unchanged at 57.3 And on Wednesday, Markit Services PMI unchanged at 49.9
Technically the pair is positive after last week’s break and close above 0.0%. In this week’s trading session if pair continue the upside, we are expecting as next level 1.3750 Alternative if pair resumes downside move, the first level to be retested is 1.3100 (23.6%) Our traders started selling the pair at 1.3500 and 1.3600 targeting profits at 1.3100. We are expecting buyers to appear around 1.3100 targeting profits at 1.3700 and short sellers to continue selling on the way up.
For more detail economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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