Pair closed last week’s trading session higher on US Dollar’s weakness as markets are digesting vaccine news and investors are fleeing away from the safe-haven Dollar and turning into promising Equity stocks. This was the result of 3 well promising COVID vaccines on their final way of face 3 approval with results showing that all 3 vaccines are around 90% effective.
Going into this week traders will focus on Vaccine news and how fast the distribution will reach out all corners of the earth. With pair’s exchange rate, approaching the multi-month higher levels of 1.2000 is keeping traders on alert, whether ECB will jump into the game and push pair lower or it will simply let it on the fate of markets and break out of this level. It is obvious that ECB does not want higher Euro as is deteriorating its efforts to push inflation higher, on the other hand, US dollar counterparty cannot stop from depreciating. Remain to see next week’s trading sessions with busy economic calendars that will be highlighted by FED’s chair and ECB’s president speeches.
On the economic calendar we have on Monday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices pointing unchanged at -0.5%. On Tuesday, European consumer price index core expected unchanged at 0.2% and US ISM manufacturing PMI expected lower at 57.5 On Wednesday, German retail sales expected higher at 6.6% and US ADP employment expected higher by 420K. On Thursday, European retail sales expected higher at 2.9% and US ISM services PMI lower at 56. On Friday, German factory order are pointing higher at 1.4% US Nonfarm payrolls to add another 520K new jobs with average hourly earnings higher at 4.6%
Technically, the picture is neutral. Pair traded higher and close at 1.1961very close to multi-month higher levels range. In this week’s trading session if the pair trades on the upside and breaks above 1,2000 gains will be accelerating with next level in focus the 1.2100 Alternative a rejection and close below 1.2000 pair may resume downside and retest 1.1854 (161.8%) Our traders keeping open all their short positions targeting profits at 1.1600 If pair continues on the upside we are expecting very aggressive sellers to appear at 1.2000 If pair retreat lower we are expecting buyers to appear at 1.1600 and many short positions to take profit below 1.1700
GBP/USD FUNDAMENTALS AND TECHNICALS
Pair closed higher last week trading session mainly on US Dollars’ weakness and on hopes that Brexit talks between EU-and UK will resume and finally strike a deal before the end of the year. Pair remains vulnerable on any Brexit outcome and as we saw last week the attempt to trade higher failed once again and turned sharp lower.
As for this week, traders will focus mainly on when the Brexit negotiation’s outcome. With the light UK economic calendar, GBPUSD exchange rate will be in the hands of US Dollar’s heavy economic calendar.
In the economic calendar we have on Monday, a BOE speech from Tenreyro. On Tuesday, Markit manufacturing PMI pointing unchanged at 55.2 On Friday, Markit services PMI expected unchanged at 45.8
Technically the pair is positive after last week’s rally. In this week’s trading session if pair continues on the upside, traders are expecting as next level 1.3500 (100%) Alternative if pair resume downside, first level to be retested is 1.2853 Our traders keeping open short positions at 1.3000, 1.3140 and 1.3252 targeting profits at 1.2700 We are expecting more aggressive short sellers to appear on the way up. Alternative if pair continues the downside short sellers will take profits and buyers will start to appear as from 1.2700 (61.8%)
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