EURUSD Closed the week firm higher on 2 fundamentals favoring the Euro. First ECB meeting and second EU weekend summit. Last week’s ECB meeting was cautiously op-timistic regarding signs of recovery in the eurozone economy even though, Christine Lagarde’s comments that an “ambitious and coordinated fiscal stance remains critical.” and general outlook is “highly uncertain”, the Euro continued on the upside on hopes that this weekend the EU leaders will finally agree on the details for the European Re-covery Fund. On the other side, the US Dollar started to show signs of recovery amidst fears that a second wave of covid-19 is on its way and increasing numbers of new in-fected people in the US will damage the US economic outlook, turning investors into the safe heaven US Dollars. As for this week, investors and traders will be focused on the weekend’s outcome form the EU leaders meeting, how FED will continue to inject cash into markets in order to rescue the economy from collapsing and the US-China relations.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, German producer price index pointing higher at 0.2%. On Thursday, Gfk consumer confidence survey expected at -4.5 and US Initial jobless claims lower at 1.280K. On Friday, German Markit manufacturing PMI expected higher at 48.3, German Markit PMI composite higher at 50.3, European Markit service PMI higher at 51 and US Markit manufacturing PMI higher at 51.3
Technically, the picture is positive. The pair broke and closed above 100%. In this week’s trading session if pair continues above 100% could add more gains with possible next level 1.1500. Alternatively, a break and close below this level will add downside pressure and retest 61.8% 1.1110, although cautiousness must be in place as pair in entering overbought territory and possible downside move to be around the corner. Our traders keeping open their short positions at 1.1029, 1.1100 and 1.1398 targeting profits at 1.0930. If pair retreats lower, we are expecting buyers to appear at 1.1100 and 1.1020 targeting profits at 1.1400 Alternative if pair tests 1.1500, we are expecting more aggressive short positions.
GBPUSD closed the week lower after another failed attempt to register a new weekly high level. Despite better than expected economic indicators, GBP bulls fail to gain traction and pair closed lower amid US Dollars strength on fears of a second wave of covid-19. As for this week traders and investors will continue following economic indicators form both the UK and US and bank of England’s governor speech.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Friday, Gfk consumer confidence pointing negative at -26 and Retail sales at 8.5%
Technically the pair is neutral after last week’s closed at 1.2565 If pair manage to stand above 50% 1.2460, we could see more gains with first level to be tested at 1.2670 just below (61.8%) in the coming sessions. Alternative a break and close below 50% will change the picture to neutral-negative and resume downside to retest 38.2%. Traders are expecting pair to range around same levels (1.2460-1.2700) until any solid breakout. We are expecting new buyers to appear as from 1.2460 and more aggressive buyers at 1.2321 and 1.2220 (38.2%) If pair continues higher, we are expecting new sellers to jump in at 1.2720 (61.8%) targeting profits at 1.2460
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