EURUSD Closed the week lower after a mid-week short lived rally. By Thursday Euro was pointing into a stronger than expected currency move due to the better than expected economic indicators outcome from both France and Germany. Apart from the economic indicators, news surrounding US trade deal with China add some downside pressure on US Dollar and this help the pair touch a monthly high of 1.1090 before resume downside and closing the week on its critical level 1.1000. Slide in EURUSD came immediate after the first speech of Christine Lagarde as ECB president. Lagarde expressed fears of farther eurozone growth weakness and ask for governments’ back up in order to maintain economic growth at home. By Friday, positive declarations from US president Trump on US-China deal gave markets a boost and push the US Dollar higher. As for this week all eyes will be on Fed’s Chair Powell speech and US China trade deal outcome. Black Friday in the US will also have significant impact on US Dollar as this is one of the most important day of the year for retailers, this day’s sales will define next retail sales and durable goods economic indicator.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, German IFO Business climate expected higher at 95.0, US Chicago fed national activity index pointing negative by -0.43. On Tuesday German Gfk Consumer confidence survey expected higher at 9.7 and US consumer confidence higher at 126.9. On Wednesday, US durable goods expected lower by -0.5% US Chicago PMI higher at 47.2, US Core PCE price index higher by 0.2% and Gross domestic product expected to remain unchanged at 1.9%. On Thursday, German prelim CPI is pointing lower by -0.7% German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected higher at 1.3%. On Friday European Consumer price index expected higher at 1.2% and French Gross domestic product to remain unchanged at 0.3%.
Technically, the picture is neutral. Last week’s drops to the critical support of 1.1000 (23.6%) kept the pair sentiment neutral. If the pair manage to close the week above 23.6% 1.1000 could help pair recover last week’s lost ground and trade higher at 1.1090 (38.2%) alternative a close below 23.6% 1.1000 will open the road for retesting 1.0900 (0%). Traders maintain open buy positions at 1.1088 and 1.1020 targeting profits at 1.1214 with stop losses at 1.0800. More aggressive buyers expected to appear at 1.0900
GBPUSD closed the week marginally lower. On the lack of any Brexit news outcome pair mainly stack in narrow range. Traders and investors are waiting for next month’s UK election results in order to jump into new trading positions. Polls last week show a better chance for Laboure’s Corbyn winning, although, Conservative Johnson is still ahead. We do not expect any higher volatility for this week. Small spikes on either direction will be due to polls outcomes. For this week US Dollar counterparty will be the major actor for any bigger move on this pair.
On this week’s light economic calendar, we have only on Wednesday, Inflation report hearings.
Technically the pair is still neutral. Pair broke and closed above the (38.2%) 1.2840 and this is keeping the picture neutral. A close below 1.2840 this week will add downside pressure on the pair and extend the downside move at 1.2770. Traders keeping open their buy positions at 1.2869 targeting profits at 1.3374. We expect more buyers to benefit from range trading and start buying the dips as from 1.2770.
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