EURUSD Closed the week higher amid Brexit deal in Brussels and deteriorated economic indicators in the US pushing the US Dollar lower for a second week in a row. All eyes this week will be turned on the UK parliament Brexit vote that it was postponed over the weekend and is now due to take place this week between Monday to Wednesday. Investors are also looking for US durable goods orders. As per last week’s weak economic indicators, investors are bracing for a lower than expected durable goods, in order to confirm the recent rally in pair will continue. Alternatively, a better than expected durable goods and a “NO” voting on Brexit deal, could be bad news for the pair and reverse sharply lower.
In this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, German producer price index pointing lower at -0.1%. On Thursday, German Markit PMI expected higher at 48.7 and German manufacturing PMI expected higher at 42.0, European Markit PMI expected higher at 50.4. Later during the same day ECB will released their later minutes and will be followed by a press conference. No change of policy in this meeting is expected, and as this will be the last press conference of ECB press conference Mario Draghi, markets expecting as usual the same dovish tone. In the US Durable goods orders expected lower by -0.4% and US manufacturing PMI lower at 50.5, On Friday, German Gfk consumer confidence expected lower at 9.8 and German IFO business climate at 94.5
Technically, the picture is neutral. Although pair continue trading higher is still within the trend channel. Recent upside move is changing the picture from neutral to positive and traders are becoming more optimistic that pair will continue trade higher and in range of 1.0900-1.1200. Pair has entered an overbought territory and it need cautions for buyers. After the recent rally, we are expecting new buyers to jump in this week at 1.1088 and 1.1013 targeting profits at 1.1200 and with stop losses at 1.0800
GBPUSD closed the week higher after Brussel meeting between the EU and the UK finally strike a deal. Comments from BOE’s Carney on Brexit deal highlighting that deal is the best for UK economy boosted the pair even more and manage closing the week on new highs. The deal was schedule to be approved by UK parliament on Saturday, some divided MPs was the reason behind the postponed voting. Parliament approved on Saturday to delay voting on the PM Boris’ Brexit deal for this week and this activated the law “Benn Act” something that forced PM Boris to ask unofficially the EU for a delay on Brexit deadline from 31st of October. EU council president Donald Tusk confirmed that he received a letter from PM Johnson asking for a delay. Although PM Johnson was opposing on such a delay, he had no choice of doing so, according to the ‘Benn Act” law PM was forced to ask for the delay before 11:00pm. Volatility on this pair will be high this week and uncertainty over the delayed Brexit deal voting may push the pair lower this week. Asking the EU for a delay it is not necessary means that EU will approve the delay, adding more uncertainty that might put the pair into sharp reversals on the downside.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have nothing to follow, all eyes will be on Brexit outcome and deal voting.
Technically the pair is still neutral even though retreaded sharply on the upside. Pair need to break and close above the 61.8% in order to change the picture to positive. Our traders hit trailing stops at 1,2600 and took profit all their buy positions. This week, we are expecting more buyers to appear at 1.2550
For more detail economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
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