EURUSD Closed the week lower as the US dollar turned positive amid a softer Chinese stance on trade the war between the US and China. As equity markets took a relief last week from trade war tensions between US and China, the US Dollar got the chance strengthen against most of its majors. The gap between weaker European economic indicators and strong US economic indicators is another reason behind the recent drop in EURUSD price. The move is relatively small and this is due to the bond yields of US Dollar continuing on the downside that is translated into a recession sign, forcing investors to brace for a potential US recession by turning into safe heaven assets like gold, CHF and JPY.
In this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, German Markit manufacturing PMI with expectations to remain unchanged at 48.5. On Tuesday, new ECB chairwoman Christine Lagarde will speak, and later the US ISM manufacturing PMI is pointing lower at 51. On Wednesday, German Markit PMI is expected the be unchanged at 51.4 and European Markit PMI also unchanged at 51.8 while European retail sales are pointing lower at 1.3%. Later during the day, many fed officials are schedule to speak. On Thursday, US ADP employment is expected at 150K US ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected higher at 54.1. On Friday, German industrial production is expected to be higher by 0.4%. European gross domestic product unchanged at 1.1%, US nonfarm payrolls expected at 159K while US average hourly earnings lower at 3.1%
Technical, the picture is negative, pair did not manage to hold critical support at 1.1045 and put the pair under pressure registering a new multiyear low. Our traders triggered stop losses at 1.1045. All opened positions hit stop loss and now traders are waiting for a price relocation possible at 1.08 before entering again. The pair is trading within a multi-year downtrend channel. Possibilities of turning higher at this level are high taking into calculation that the pair is now into an oversold territory and exactly on the trend line.
GBPUSDended in the red last week as PM Boris Johnson revealed his secret plan. Traders were taken by surprise last week after PM Boris Johnson proposed to the Queen to suspend parliament ahead of Brexit procedures and the Queen approved. GBP took the move negative as this is creating intra party turbulences and increasing the possibilities of a failed confidence vote against PM Boris Johnson, something that will produce additional uncertainty in the UK. By the end of last week, the pair stabilized around monthly low levels as declaration from both the UK and EU are pointing into a period of positive negotiations. Economic indicators are still weak and pointing into a declining economy and weaker growth in the UK and all is to blame Brexit. As for this week, all eyes will be on the only one working week of UK parliament before is suspension and on the court’s decision on whether the suspension is legally binding or is to be recalled. Brexit negotiation outcome will be the main actor behind any move on this pair.
In this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, Markit manufacturing PMI with expectation higher at 48.4.
Technically the pair is neutral as far as holds 1.2000. Traders are expecting a continuation on the upside. Our traders took advantage of last week’s drop and entered their first buy position at 1.2200 targeting profits at 1.2800. At 1.2000 we expect aggressive buy orders with stop loss at 1.1950
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