EURUSD trades were unchanged last week as traders were waiting for the G20 meeting and the outcome between Trump and Xi Jinping on trade war talks. By the time we are writing our weekly commentary we know that on Saturday Both leaders agreed a hold on new tariffs and resume negotiations. The most important step was that Trump suggested he will revise his last week’s decision, banning US companies collaborating with Huawei. This decision will be seen as positive news from markets and could change the picture in all US dollar pairs and equities. Volatility is expected to pick up this week after the positive news from the G20 meeting and especially in the same week of Non-farm payrolls in the US. More important than any other time this number will reinforce the path of the FED regarding rate cuts in their future policy meetings or a better than expected number will be taken as positive for the US dollar and erased possibilities of rate cut.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, German Markit manufacturing PMI with expectations to remain unchanged at 45.4 and later the US ISM manufacturing PMI expected lower at 51.0 On Wednesday, European Markit service PMI expected lower at 50.6, the US ADP employment is higher at 150K and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI lower at 56.0 On Thursday, European retail sales is expected unchanged at 1.5%. On Friday, German factory orders are expected lower by 0.1% and finally the US nonfarm payrolls expected higher at 158K.
Technical, the picture is positive. Pair managed to close above the important level of 1.1350 for a second week. As we mentioned last week with the higher high and higher low formation since the beginning of June, the picture is positive and further upside move is expected. Our traders trigger trailing stops above 1.1350 and hopping to reach their target at 1.1500. New pending buy orders were placed at 1.1275 and 1.1200 targeting profits at 1.1500.
GBPUSD traded lower last week with the lack of any updates from Brexit talks and the waiting for the new PM results. As for now the pair will be in the hands of its counterparty US dollar regarding any direction on either side.
On the economic calendar this week we have only on Monday, Markit manufacturing PMI pointing lower at 47.8
Technically the pair is negative and continues trades below the 100% Fibonacci level. A break and close above 1.2788 need to change the picture back to neutral. Our traders maintain open their buy positions at 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci level), 1.3123 (38.2% Fibonacci level) at 1.3062 (50% Fibonacci level) and 1.2996 (61.8% Fibonacci) and they aggressive bought on 1.2788 (100% Fibonacci) targeting profits at 1.3330.
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