EURUSD traded higher last week amid ECB’s minutes crushing down possibility of a rate cut. Even though ECB maintained a dovish tone, mentioning that rates will remain lower for an extending time, market took this as a done job already priced in and this helped the pair maintain its upside move started a week before. Another reason for the recent rally, it was the negative jobs numbers from the US. ADP at27K and Nonfarm payrolls at 75K was a solid fundamental for the upside move in EURUSD. Too early for now to applause the upside move as this was mainly pricing in a rate cut from the FED. The upcoming FOMC will clear this decision and pair will either continue upside move or resume the downside if FOMC will fail to deliver a rate cut.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Tuesday, the US Producer price index pointing lower at 2.3%. On Wednesday ECBs Mario Draghi will speak and later during the day the US Consumer price index will be released, and expectations are to remain unchanged at 2.1%. On Thursday, German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected to remain unchanged at 1.3%. On Friday the US retails sales expected higher at 0.6% and Michigan consumer sentiment lower at 98.1.
Technically, the picture is neutral to positive. Pair broke above the down trend channel and range of 1.1300 – 1.1100. A clear break and close above 1.1330 (38.2% Fibonacci) will change the picture to positive. Our traders took profit their buy positions at 1.1185 triggered trailing stops for positions opened at 1.1275 and now expecting the pair to continue higher and hit their target at 1.1500. New pending buy orders were placed at 1.1275 and 1.1185 targeting profits at 1.1500
GBPUSD traded higher last week amid dollar’s weakness and due to a “waiting mode” surrounding the UK government on who will be the next PM. Polls are showing that Boris Johnson will be the next PM, if this will be confirmed the pair will resume downside move of at least an initial reaction. Theresa May faced another defeat last week in the parliament, on a voting of trying to win an additional seat for her party. With her days as PM running out and with the Brexiters successors on track of winning the position, will put the pair under pressure.
On the economic calendar this week we have on Monday, manufacturing production pointing lower at 0.2% and gross domestic product lower by -0.1%. On Tuesday, average earnings to remain unchanged at 3.3% and ILO unemployment expected at 3.9%.
Technically the pair is negative and continue trades below the 100% Fibonacci level. A minor pull back last week, might be a bullish sign. A break and close above 1.2788 (100% Fibonacci level) needs to confirm the resume of the upside move. Our traders maintain open their buy positions at 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci level), 1.3123 (38.2% Fibonacci level) at 1.3062 (50% Fibonacci level) and 1.2996 (61.8% Fibonacci) and they aggressive bought on 1.2788 (100% Fibonacci) targeting profits at 1.3330.
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