EURUSD traded higher last week in the lack of European economic indicators and softer than expected US CPI. The US dollar lost some ground after US president Trump said that talks between the US and China are in good way with many points to be agreed. Although the 200 billion US dollars tariffs are already in force and the threat of China countermeasures are still major fundamentals that can change the US dollar picture. Pending for this week are the new European auto tariffs postponed until May 18th. By that day the US president Trump will decide whether to impose tariffs on European car imports.
This week’s economic calendar is busy starting from Tuesday, the German Harmonized index of consumer prices expected lower at 1.7%, German ZEW survey down to 0.8% and Europe’s ZEW survey down to 1.0. On Wednesday, German gross domestic product expected higher at 0.3%, European gross domestic product unchanged at 1.2%. US retail sales expected lower at 0.4%. On Friday, European consumer price index expected to remain unchanged at 1.7% and US Michigan consumer sentiment expected higher at 97.7.
Technical, the picture is negative to neutral. As far as the pair continue trading within the down trend channel and range of 1.1300 – 1.1100, is keeping traders on hold and see. A clear break and close above 1.1275 (23.6% Fibonacci) needed to change the picture to neutral-positive. Our traders maintaining all buy positions open at 1.1500, 1.1275 and 1.1185 targeting profits at 1.1500 using trailing stops for each trade above 100 pips profits. A break and close below 1.1138 on the 4H chart this week will force traders using stop losses at 1.1080
GBPUSD traded lower last week after PM Theresa May was threaten from both, her party and the opposition party to step down. Once again political uncertainty in the UK is negative impact the pair and creating more and longer uncertainty in the UK. Although economic indicators from last week came out more positive than were expected pair did not manage to react as the Brexit uncertainty is overshadow the economic indicators. Negotiations will continue over this week and any outcome will be taken either negative or positive.
On the economic calendar this week we have on Tuesday, ILO unemployment rate with expectation to remain unchanged at 3.5%, and average earning also unchanged at 3.4%.
Technically the pair is neutral and continue trading within range. This range is giving traders opportunities to buy the dips and take profit between the range of 1.3000 -1.3200. Our traders maintain open their buy positions at 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci level) and opened new buy positions at 1.3123 (38.2% Fibonacci level) at 1.3062 (50% Fibonacci level) and 1.2996 (61.8% Fibonacci) targeting profits at 1.3330.
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