EURUSD traded lowers last week mostly due to the uncertainty of Brexit outcome and to the economic growth worries discussed last week between different ECB’s officials. One of the main worries of ECB is the inflation number that continues to remain low and below ECB’s target. Even though ECB took all necessary actions to help inflation pick up, none of the actions helped. Another factor behind the recent decline in EURUSD exchange rate, is the U.S. Dollar’s recent strength. The recent strength in US Dollar is mainly due to the fact that for now the U.S. Dollar is seen as haven asset due to the new trade threats between U.S. and China and due to the global slow down growth. This week Chinese officials are coming to the US in order to finalize a solid trade agreement between the two countries. If this will be achieved the pair may have some relief and recover from the multi-year low levels.
On this week’s economic calendar, we have on Monday, the European Consumer price index with expectations to remain unchanged at 1.5%, the US retails sales pointing lower at 0.4% and US ISM manufacturing PMI pointing higher at 54.5. On Tuesday, the US durable goods orders expected to be lower at -1.2% On Wednesday, European Markit service PMI expected to remain unchanged at 52.7, European retails sales expected lower at 0.2%, US ADP employment expected lower at 165K and US ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected lower at 58.7. On Thursday, German factory orders expected positive at 0.3%. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US nonfarm payroll number that is expected to be much higher at 175K in order to cover the latest disappointing number of just 20K.
Technically, the picture is neutral. Our traders keeping open their buy position at 1.1500 targeting profits around 1.1565. New buy positions opened at 1.1275 (23.6% Fibonacci) and we are expecting aggressive buy orders to be opened at 1.1184 (0.00% Fibonacci) all targeting profits around 1.1400. If the pair break and close below 1.1180 on the 4H chart this might change the picture to negative and force our traders to stop loss all their long positions.
GBPUSD traded lower last week after Parliament failed to find support on all 8 alternatives proposed. MP Theresa May’s plan was defeated for a 3rd time on Friday and the whole story creates a negative sentiment on GBP as fears of a no deal and hard Brexit are coming back to the markets as we approach the new divorced date of April the 12. On Monday it is said to be in place a 4th voting on Theresa May’s Brexit plan, although there are doubts weather parliament’s speaker will accept a 4th voting.
On the economic calendar, we have on Monday the UK Markit manufacturing PMI pointing lower at 51.3 and the parliament voting. On Tuesday Markit construction PMI expected higher at 50.0. On Wednesday, Markit service PMI expected lower at 51.0.
Technically the pair is positive to neutral. Our traders maintain open their buy positions at 1.3200 (23.6% Fibonacci level), 1.3123 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and 1.3062 (50% Fibonacci level) targeting profits at 1.3330. We expecting them to continue buying the dips with new positions at 1.2990 (61.8% Fibonacci)
For more detail economic calendar events please visit our live economic calendar on:
*The material does not contain an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments. 10TradeFX accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences resulting in it. No representationor warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. CFDs are leveraged products. CFD trading may not be suitable for everyone and can result in losing all your invested capital, so please make sure that you fully understand the risks involved.