EURUSD pair managed to recover all lost ground from last week including the additional losses suffered after ECB’s meeting and the comments of Mario Draghi expressing his worries about Europe’s weak growth and the maintaining of low interest rates for longer time.
As for this week’s economic events we have on Monday, a speech from ECB’s Mario Draghi, without expecting anything more dovish compare to last week’s speech. On Tuesday, the US Consumer confidence expected lower at 125. On Wednesday, German GFK Consumer confidence expected at 10.3 and Europe’s Business climate at 0.73, German Harmonized index of consumer price index expected higher at 1.8%, US ADP employment expected much lower at 178K. Later we have the first FOMC of 2019. Although no rate hike is expected and not any changes in the FED’s monetary policy, investors will carefully study the minutes in order to figure out what FED noted from last Quarter of 2018 GDP number. Fed’s Powell will speak after the minutes and we are expecting to listen to his point of view for the fed’s path during 2019 after analyzing GDP numbers and labor market conditions. On Thursday, German retail sales expected lower at -0.7% and French Consumer price index lower at 1.4%, Europe’s Gross domestic product expected lower at 1.2% down from 1.6% and this will have a negative impact on Euro as it will confirm ECB’s worries. On Friday the US nonfarm payroll expected much lower at 168K and average hour earning stable at 3.2%
Technically, the picture is neutral. Our traders keeping open their buy positions around 1.1500 (50% Fibonacci), 1.1400 and 1.1352 (23.6% Fibonacci) targeting profits around 1.1565
GBPUSD closed solid higher last week as investor’s confidence is becoming more positive ahead of Tuesday’s Voting on May’s Brexit plan B, where it is expected to be favorably voted and will secure the UK’s exit from the EU avoiding the no deal and hard Brexit worries that surrounded the pair for the last year. Pair gain traction on Friday before closing bell and this was due to the positive talks between Theresa May and Norther Ireland’s DUP. Unknown reports shown that DUP will back Theresa May on Tuesday after promises that in plan B will include a time limit for keeping boarder open.
On the economic calendar we have only on Friday the UK Markit manufacturing PMI with expectations pointing lower at 53.5
Technically the pair is positive. Our traders took profit in all their open positions after pair broke their target at 1.3000. We are expecting now to see new buyers in any possible drop around 1.3022. An alternative scenario if pair continues to trade higher due to Fundamental reasons traders may start to buy higher the break out of 1.3174 as picture will change and profit taking limits will be moved up to 1.3542.
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