EURUSD succeeded again to reject the downside pressure and traded higher last week. This upside move was mainly due to the aggressive sell off in equity markets that kept the dollar lower. Another reason is that, even though the Italian parliament approved the budget, a declaration from Italy’s prime minister that could negotiate with E.C. and come back with a more E.C. comply budget, helped the Euro to recover from last week’s downside pressure. For this week traders will focus on the U.S. retail sales on Monday, expectations are for a better number of 0.5% up from last 0.1%. On Wednesday Europe’s core CPI expected to be higher at 1% up from last 0.9%. Later, on the same day FOMC will release their minutes, no change is expected at this meeting. Apart from the economic calendar traders will keep monitoring the equity markets, if sell off will continue, it may put in questions about Fed’s rate hike path in the future and could bring U.S. dollar even lower.
Technically the pair is neutral. Our traders continue to trade the Fibonacci chart, using the trading style “buying into the dips”. Buy positions at 1.1674 (23.6%), 1.1604 (38.2%) and at 1.1548 (50%) and 1.1500 (61.8%) were opened and targeting profits around 1.1800. The pair rejected the 61.8% Fibonacci level (1.1500) and closed above 1.1548 the 50%. This is changing somehow the picture to more positive for now and traders are expecting a continuation of the upside retesting support at 1.1705 for this week. Trailing stops could be trigger to all positions above 1.1674
GBPUSD gave back almost all gains last week as traders took profit their long position ahead of this week’s meeting in Brussel where E.U. and U.K. will announce the result over a trade deal between the two. On the economic calendar we have on Tuesday the U.K. Average earnings with expectations pointing lower at 2.8%. On Wednesday U.K. CPI expected higher at 2.8% and on Thursday U.K. retail sales expected unchanged at 3.3%. As we previously seen, the economic calendar results are overshadowed by Brexit results, and we are expecting this to continue in this week as the Brussels outcome is very important for the future of the U.K. economy. Keep a close look on Wednesday 17th and Thursday 18th.
Technically the pair is positive. Last week’s broke of support 1.3200 gave traders the chance to trigger their trailing stops and took profit of all their open positions. We are expecting them to start cautiously buying again at 1.3135 (23.6%) and 1.3063 (38.2%) targeting profits at 1.3300
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