Last week’s hawkish FOMC stretch the pair to lower levels once again. Even though the Nonfarm payroll number was much lower than expected, it did not kept the bears from pushing lower. We are entering now into a week without any significant economic events and the beginning of summer holidays for both Europe and U.S. Thin liquidity and low volumes are expected as usual every August and might keep the rate within the usual range of 1.15 -1.17. Something very important, traders must always have in mind when trading EURUSD pair; “Trump’s trade war” and comments over the strong dollar. In thin liquidity periods like the one we are entering is more than enough a declaration from US president Trump on opposing to the strengthening of the dollar. Such a declaration could once again push the rate back to the highs of 1.17.
Technical EURUSD is neutral. Range trading persist. Our Traders maintain open buy positions at 1.1734 targeting 1.1853 to take profit. And new buys at 1.1610 with take profit at 1.1853 trailing stop above 1.1722. Since the pair did not manage to retrace on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, this means that the road is open for retesting the strong multi month support of 1.1500
BOE did not manage to keep GBP from falling. The rate hike of 0.25% was well priced in and well forceable. Even though upon the release pair spiked higher, then it was immediately retreated and continue trading lower on comments of BOE’s governor Mr. Carney saying that he is cautious on recent UK’s weak economic data. As mention above holiday season will offer little economic data and traders will mostly focus on Brexit talks. On Friday, UK Gross domestic product is expected to remain unchanged at 1.2%
Technically, the pair is neutral. A new uptrend formation started on July 18 failed to maintain the positive picture we had last week. Therefore, traders maintain open positions buy at 1.3365 targeting profits at 1.3471 and position buy at 1.3223 take profit at 1.3471 with trailing stopped above 1.3310. Downtrend is persisting and a break below the strong support of 1.2961 may force trader to trigger stop loss.
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